Merstham 0–1 Faversham Town: Result & Stats

Merstham

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Faversham Town

1/10/2026

League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Merstham42%

×Draw28%

Faversham Town30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MersthamExpected goals in this matchFaversham Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.03

Merstham

1.28

Faversham Town

1.03

Merstham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

0.67

1.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Merstham

1.90

Faversham Town

0.67

allows per match

Merstham

1.40

Faversham Town

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merstham+0.00on par

Faversham Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merstham ↓

Faversham Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Merstham or draw

70%

Merstham or Faversham Town

72%

Draw or Faversham Town

58%

Winning margin

Merstham wins by 2+

19%

Faversham Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Merstham 1+ goals

72%

Merstham 2+ goals

37%

Merstham 3+ goals

14%

Faversham Town 1+ goals

64%

Faversham Town 2+ goals

28%

Faversham Town 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Merstham (draw refunded)

59%

Faversham Town (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merstham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Faversham Town away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merstham attack 1.90 + Faversham Town defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.28

Faversham Town attack 0.67 + Merstham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merstham scores more

42%

level

28%

Faversham Town scores more

30%

Merstham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merstham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff