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Merstham vs East Grinstead Town — League #57 2026

Merstham
Merstham
FT
7 – 2
East Grinstead Town
East Grinstead Town
4/18/2026League #57League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Merstham75%
×Draw13%
East Grinstead Town12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merstham
3.45
East Grinstead Town
1.36

Merstham creates 154% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Merstham
1.90
East Grinstead Town
1.33

allows per match

Merstham
1.40
East Grinstead Town
5.00

finishing

Merstham+0.00on par
East Grinstead Town+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merstham ↓

East Grinstead Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Merstham or draw
88%
Merstham or East Grinstead Town
87%
Draw or East Grinstead Town
25%

Winning margin

Merstham wins by 2+
57%
East Grinstead Town wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Merstham 1+ goals
97%
Merstham 2+ goals
85%
Merstham 3+ goals
65%
East Grinstead Town 1+ goals
74%
East Grinstead Town 2+ goals
39%
East Grinstead Town 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Merstham (draw refunded)
87%
East Grinstead Town (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merstham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

East Grinstead Town away — creates 1.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merstham attack 1.90 + East Grinstead Town defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 3.45

East Grinstead Town attack 1.33 + Merstham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Merstham scores more
75%
level
13%
East Grinstead Town scores more
12%

Merstham at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Merstham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #57: Merstham 7–2 East Grinstead Town

Merstham beat East Grinstead Town 7-2 in League #57 on April 18, 2026.