Merstham 1–1 Deal Town: Result & Stats | League #57

Merstham

FT

1 – 1

Deal Town

4/4/2026

League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Merstham55%

×Draw21%

Deal Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MersthamExpected goals in this matchDeal Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.36

Merstham

2.12

Deal Town

1.36

Merstham creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

1.33

1.40

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Merstham

1.90

Deal Town

1.33

allows per match

Merstham

1.40

Deal Town

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merstham+0.00on par

Deal Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merstham ↓

Deal Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Merstham or draw

76%

Merstham or Deal Town

79%

Draw or Deal Town

45%

Winning margin

Merstham wins by 2+

33%

Deal Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Merstham 1+ goals

88%

Merstham 2+ goals

62%

Merstham 3+ goals

35%

Deal Town 1+ goals

74%

Deal Town 2+ goals

39%

Deal Town 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Merstham (draw refunded)

69%

Deal Town (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merstham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Deal Town away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merstham attack 1.90 + Deal Town defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.12

Deal Town attack 1.33 + Merstham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Merstham scores more

55%

level

21%

Deal Town scores more

24%

Merstham at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Merstham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff