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Mwadui vs Singida United — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Mwadui
Mwadui
FT
1 – 0
Singida United
Singida United
8/25/2019Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 1Mwadui Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Mwadui56%
×Draw24%
Singida United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mwadui
1.68
Singida United
0.88

Mwadui creates 91% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 18 away

creates per match

Mwadui
1.03
Singida United
0.50

allows per match

Mwadui
1.25
Singida United
2.33

finishing

Mwadui+0.00on par
Singida United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mwadui ↓

Singida United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mwadui or draw
80%
Mwadui or Singida United
76%
Draw or Singida United
44%

Winning margin

Mwadui wins by 2+
31%
Singida United wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mwadui 1+ goals
81%
Mwadui 2+ goals
50%
Mwadui 3+ goals
24%
Singida United 1+ goals
59%
Singida United 2+ goals
22%
Singida United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mwadui (draw refunded)
74%
Singida United (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mwadui at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.25 · 36 matches

Singida United away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mwadui attack 1.03 + Singida United defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.68

Singida United attack 0.50 + Mwadui defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mwadui scores more
56%
level
24%
Singida United scores more
20%

Mwadui at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Mwadui will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Ligi kuu Bara: Mwadui 1–0 Singida United

Mwadui beat Singida United 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Mwadui Complex Stadium in Shinyanga.