Merreikh Kosti 0–2 Umm Mughad: Result & Stats

Merreikh Kosti

FT

0 – 2

Umm Mughad

2/13/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Merreikh Kosti25%

×Draw26%

Umm Mughad50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merreikh KostiExpected goals in this matchUmm Mughad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.99

1.52

Merreikh Kosti

0.99

Umm Mughad

1.52

Umm Mughad creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

0.71

creates per match

1.18

1.86

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Merreikh Kosti

0.71

Umm Mughad

1.18

allows per match

Merreikh Kosti

1.86

Umm Mughad

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par

Umm Mughad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Kosti ↓

Umm Mughad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Merreikh Kosti or draw

50%

Merreikh Kosti or Umm Mughad

74%

Draw or Umm Mughad

75%

Winning margin

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+

9%

Umm Mughad wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals

63%

Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals

26%

Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals

8%

Umm Mughad 1+ goals

78%

Umm Mughad 2+ goals

45%

Umm Mughad 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)

33%

Umm Mughad (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Kosti at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Umm Mughad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.71 + Umm Mughad defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.99

Umm Mughad attack 1.18 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Merreikh Kosti scores more

25%

level

26%

Umm Mughad scores more

50%

Umm Mughad at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Umm Mughad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff