Merreikh Kosti 2–3 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Merreikh Kosti

FT

2 – 3

Al Ahli Wad Medani

2/10/2026

Sudani Premier League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Merreikh Kosti27%

×Draw29%

Al Ahli Wad Medani44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merreikh KostiExpected goals in this matchAl Ahli Wad Medani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.23

Merreikh Kosti

0.91

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.23

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 35% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

0.73

creates per match

1.18

1.27

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Merreikh Kosti

0.73

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.18

allows per match

Merreikh Kosti

1.27

Al Ahli Wad Medani

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par

Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Kosti ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Merreikh Kosti or draw

56%

Merreikh Kosti or Al Ahli Wad Medani

71%

Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani

73%

Winning margin

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+

9%

Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals

60%

Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals

23%

Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals

6%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals

71%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals

35%

Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)

39%

Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Kosti at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.73 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.91

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.18 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merreikh Kosti scores more

27%

level

29%

Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more

44%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff