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Merreikh Kosti vs Al Ahli Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2025

Merreikh Kosti
Merreikh Kosti
FT
3 – 2
Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
10/3/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Relegation Round - 18Kosti Stadium (Kosti)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Merreikh Kosti30%
×Draw30%
Al Ahli Khartoum40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh Kosti
0.97
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.16

Al Ahli Khartoum creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 19 away

creates per match

Merreikh Kosti
0.73
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.05

allows per match

Merreikh Kosti
1.27
Al Ahli Khartoum
1.21

finishing

Merreikh Kosti+0.00on par
Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh Kosti ↓

Al Ahli Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Merreikh Kosti or draw
60%
Merreikh Kosti or Al Ahli Khartoum
70%
Draw or Al Ahli Khartoum
70%

Winning margin

Merreikh Kosti wins by 2+
11%
Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Merreikh Kosti 1+ goals
62%
Merreikh Kosti 2+ goals
25%
Merreikh Kosti 3+ goals
7%
Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
69%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
32%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Merreikh Kosti (draw refunded)
43%
Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh Kosti at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Al Ahli Khartoum away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh Kosti attack 0.73 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.97

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.05 + Merreikh Kosti defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Merreikh Kosti scores more
30%
level
30%
Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
40%

Al Ahli Khartoum at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al Ahli Khartoum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh Kosti vs Al Ahli Khartoum

Merreikh Kosti beat Al Ahli Khartoum 3-2 in Sudani Premier League on October 3, 2018.

The match was played at Kosti Stadium (Kosti).