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Merreikh El-Fasher vs Tuti — Sudani Premier League 2019

Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
FT
0 – 0
Tuti
Tuti
2/9/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 9Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher42%
×Draw30%
Tuti28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.19
Tuti
0.91

Merreikh El-Fasher creates 31% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 44 away

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.14
Tuti
0.84

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.97
Tuti
1.25

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par
Tuti+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Tuti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw
72%
Merreikh El-Fasher or Tuti
70%
Draw or Tuti
58%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
18%
Tuti wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
70%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
33%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
12%
Tuti 1+ goals
60%
Tuti 2+ goals
23%
Tuti 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
60%
Tuti (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Tuti away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Tuti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Tuti attack 0.84 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
42%
level
30%
Tuti scores more
28%

Merreikh El-Fasher at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merreikh El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Merreikh El-Fasher 0–0 Tuti

Merreikh El-Fasher and Tuti drew 0-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 9, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.