Merreikh El-Fasher 1–1 Hay Al Wadi: Result & Stats

Merreikh El-Fasher

FT

1 – 1

Hay Al Wadi

3/10/2020

Sudani Premier League · Round 25Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher40%

×Draw30%

Hay Al Wadi30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merreikh El-FasherExpected goals in this matchHay Al Wadi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.94

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.13

Hay Al Wadi

0.94

Merreikh El-Fasher creates 20% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 86 away

1.14

creates per match

0.90

0.97

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher

1.14

Hay Al Wadi

0.90

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher

0.97

Hay Al Wadi

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Hay Al Wadi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Hay Al Wadi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw

70%

Merreikh El-Fasher or Hay Al Wadi

70%

Draw or Hay Al Wadi

60%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+

17%

Hay Al Wadi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals

68%

Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals

31%

Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals

11%

Hay Al Wadi 1+ goals

61%

Hay Al Wadi 2+ goals

24%

Hay Al Wadi 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)

57%

Hay Al Wadi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Hay Al Wadi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Hay Al Wadi defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hay Al Wadi attack 0.90 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more

40%

level

30%

Hay Al Wadi scores more

30%

Merreikh El-Fasher at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Merreikh El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff