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Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Port Sudan — Sudani Premier League 2019

Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
FT
1 – 3
Al Hilal Port Sudan
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1/12/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 3Al-Hilal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher35%
×Draw29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.08
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.09

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 57 away

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.14
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.21

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.97
Al Hilal Port Sudan
1.02

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Hilal Port Sudan+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Al Hilal Port Sudan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw
64%
Merreikh El-Fasher or Al Hilal Port Sudan
71%
Draw or Al Hilal Port Sudan
65%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
14%
Al Hilal Port Sudan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
66%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
29%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
10%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 1+ goals
66%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 2+ goals
30%
Al Hilal Port Sudan 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
50%
Al Hilal Port Sudan (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Al Hilal Port Sudan away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Al Hilal Port Sudan defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Al Hilal Port Sudan attack 1.21 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
35%
level
29%
Al Hilal Port Sudan scores more
36%

Al Hilal Port Sudan at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Al Hilal Port Sudan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Port Sudan

Al Hilal Port Sudan beat Merreikh El-Fasher 3-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 12, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Hilal Stadium in Umm Durman.