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Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Omdurman — Sudani Premier League 2019

Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
FT
1 – 1
Al Hilal Omdurman
Al Hilal Omdurman
10/6/2020Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 32Family Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher24%
×Draw27%
Al Hilal Omdurman49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.89
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.42

Al Hilal Omdurman creates 60% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 64 away

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.14
Al Hilal Omdurman
1.88

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.97
Al Hilal Omdurman
0.63

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Hilal Omdurman+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Al Hilal Omdurman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw
51%
Merreikh El-Fasher or Al Hilal Omdurman
73%
Draw or Al Hilal Omdurman
76%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
8%
Al Hilal Omdurman wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
59%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
22%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
6%
Al Hilal Omdurman 1+ goals
76%
Al Hilal Omdurman 2+ goals
41%
Al Hilal Omdurman 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
32%
Al Hilal Omdurman (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Al Hilal Omdurman away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Al Hilal Omdurman defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.89

Al Hilal Omdurman attack 1.88 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
24%
level
27%
Al Hilal Omdurman scores more
49%

Al Hilal Omdurman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Al Hilal Omdurman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al Hilal Omdurman

Merreikh El-Fasher and Al Hilal Omdurman drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on October 6, 2020.

The match was played at Family Club Stadium in Khartoum.