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Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
FT
0 – 1
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
7/3/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 21Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher46%
×Draw29%
Al-Ahly Merowe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.25
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.83

Merreikh El-Fasher creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 74 away

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.14
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.97
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw
75%
Merreikh El-Fasher or Al-Ahly Merowe
71%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
54%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
21%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
71%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
36%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
13%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
56%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
20%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
65%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
46%
level
29%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
25%

Merreikh El-Fasher at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Merreikh El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Merreikh El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on July 3, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.