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Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al-Ahli Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
FT
5 – 0
Al-Ahli Atbara
Al-Ahli Atbara
12/28/2019Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 17Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Merreikh El-Fasher65%
×Draw21%
Al-Ahli Atbara14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.90
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.73

Merreikh El-Fasher creates 160% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 18 away

creates per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
1.14
Al-Ahli Atbara
0.50

allows per match

Merreikh El-Fasher
0.97
Al-Ahli Atbara
2.67

finishing

Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al-Ahli Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merreikh El-Fasher ↓

Al-Ahli Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Merreikh El-Fasher or draw
86%
Merreikh El-Fasher or Al-Ahli Atbara
79%
Draw or Al-Ahli Atbara
35%

Winning margin

Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
39%
Al-Ahli Atbara wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
85%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
56%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
29%
Al-Ahli Atbara 1+ goals
52%
Al-Ahli Atbara 2+ goals
17%
Al-Ahli Atbara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
83%
Al-Ahli Atbara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merreikh El-Fasher at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

Al-Ahli Atbara away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 1.14 + Al-Ahli Atbara defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Al-Ahli Atbara attack 0.50 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
65%
level
21%
Al-Ahli Atbara scores more
14%

Merreikh El-Fasher at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Merreikh El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merreikh El-Fasher vs Al-Ahli Atbara

Merreikh El-Fasher beat Al-Ahli Atbara 5-0 in Sudani Premier League on December 28, 2019.

The match was played at Alnagea Staduim in Al Fashir.