Mérida AD 1–1 Unionistas de Salamanca

Mérida AD

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Unionistas de Salamanca

9/24/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD44%

×Draw28%

Unionistas de Salamanca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchUnionistas de Salamanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.01

Mérida AD

1.32

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.01

Mérida AD creates 31% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 106 away

1.37

creates per match

0.91

1.11

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.37

Unionistas de Salamanca

0.91

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Unionistas de Salamanca

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Unionistas de Salamanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Unionistas de Salamanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

71%

Mérida AD or Unionistas de Salamanca

72%

Draw or Unionistas de Salamanca

56%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

20%

Unionistas de Salamanca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

73%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

38%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

15%

Unionistas de Salamanca 1+ goals

64%

Unionistas de Salamanca 2+ goals

27%

Unionistas de Salamanca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

60%

Unionistas de Salamanca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Unionistas de Salamanca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Unionistas de Salamanca defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Unionistas de Salamanca attack 0.91 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mérida AD scores more

44%

level

28%

Unionistas de Salamanca scores more

29%

Mérida AD at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff