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Mérida AD vs Sevilla Atletico — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sevilla Atletico
Sevilla Atletico
4/6/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 31Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD52%
×Draw26%
Sevilla Atletico22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.50
Sevilla Atletico
0.88

Mérida AD creates 70% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.47
Sevilla Atletico
0.65

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Sevilla Atletico
1.53

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Sevilla Atletico+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Sevilla Atletico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
78%
Mérida AD or Sevilla Atletico
74%
Draw or Sevilla Atletico
48%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
26%
Sevilla Atletico wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
78%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
44%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
19%
Sevilla Atletico 1+ goals
59%
Sevilla Atletico 2+ goals
22%
Sevilla Atletico 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
70%
Sevilla Atletico (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Sevilla Atletico away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + Sevilla Atletico defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.50

Sevilla Atletico attack 0.65 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mérida AD scores more
52%
level
26%
Sevilla Atletico scores more
22%

Mérida AD at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Mérida AD 2–1 Sevilla Atletico

Mérida AD beat Sevilla Atletico 2-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.