Mérida AD 0–0 Recreativo Huelva: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Recreativo Huelva

11/26/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD47%

×Draw27%

Recreativo Huelva26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchRecreativo Huelva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.99

Mérida AD

1.43

Recreativo Huelva

0.99

Mérida AD creates 44% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

0.87

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.47

Recreativo Huelva

0.87

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Recreativo Huelva

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Recreativo Huelva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Recreativo Huelva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

74%

Mérida AD or Recreativo Huelva

73%

Draw or Recreativo Huelva

53%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

23%

Recreativo Huelva wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

76%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

42%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

17%

Recreativo Huelva 1+ goals

63%

Recreativo Huelva 2+ goals

26%

Recreativo Huelva 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

64%

Recreativo Huelva (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Recreativo Huelva away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + Recreativo Huelva defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.43

Recreativo Huelva attack 0.87 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mérida AD scores more

47%

level

27%

Recreativo Huelva scores more

26%

Mérida AD at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff