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Mérida AD vs Ponferradina — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
Preview
16:00
Ponferradina
Ponferradina
2/6/2027Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Romano Jose Fouto
37%
Mérida AD
model favours
37%30%33%

90% of Ponferradina’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD37%
×Draw30%
Ponferradina33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.11
Ponferradina
1.03

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Ponferradina
0.95

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Ponferradina
0.86

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Ponferradina+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Ponferradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
67%
Mérida AD or Ponferradina
70%
Draw or Ponferradina
63%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
15%
Ponferradina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
67%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
30%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
10%
Ponferradina 1+ goals
64%
Ponferradina 2+ goals
28%
Ponferradina 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
53%
Ponferradina (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Ponferradina away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.86 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Ponferradina defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ponferradina attack 0.95 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mérida AD scores more
37%
level
30%
Ponferradina scores more
33%

Mérida AD at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 20% of Ponferradina’s matches
  • Ponferradina score first in only 30% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
AD
WDLLL
Ponferradina
LDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Mérida AD host Ponferradina

February 6, 2027: Mérida AD take on Ponferradina in Primera División RFEF - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Mérida AD host Ponferradina at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.