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Mérida AD vs Marbella — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Marbella
Marbella
1/19/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 20Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD51%
×Draw24%
Marbella24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.68
Marbella
1.08

Mérida AD creates 56% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.47
Marbella
1.05

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Marbella
1.89

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Marbella+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Marbella →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
76%
Mérida AD or Marbella
76%
Draw or Marbella
49%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
28%
Marbella wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
81%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
50%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
24%
Marbella 1+ goals
66%
Marbella 2+ goals
29%
Marbella 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
68%
Marbella (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Marbella away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + Marbella defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.68

Marbella attack 1.05 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mérida AD scores more
51%
level
24%
Marbella scores more
24%

Mérida AD at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Mérida AD 4–2 Marbella

Mérida AD beat Marbella 4-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.