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Mérida AD vs Linense — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linense
Linense
2/12/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD41%
×Draw32%
Linense28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.06
Linense
0.82

Mérida AD creates 29% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Linense
0.53

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Linense
0.74

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Linense+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Linense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
72%
Mérida AD or Linense
68%
Draw or Linense
59%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
16%
Linense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
65%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
29%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
9%
Linense 1+ goals
56%
Linense 2+ goals
20%
Linense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
59%
Linense (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Linense away — creates 0.53, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Linense defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Linense attack 0.53 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mérida AD scores more
41%
level
32%
Linense scores more
28%

Mérida AD at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mérida AD vs Linense

Mérida AD beat Linense 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 12, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.