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Mérida AD vs Fuenlabrada — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fuenlabrada
Fuenlabrada
3/26/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD51%
×Draw27%
Fuenlabrada22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.44
Fuenlabrada
0.84

Mérida AD creates 71% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Fuenlabrada
0.58

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Fuenlabrada
1.50

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Fuenlabrada+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Fuenlabrada →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
78%
Mérida AD or Fuenlabrada
73%
Draw or Fuenlabrada
49%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
26%
Fuenlabrada wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
76%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
42%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
18%
Fuenlabrada 1+ goals
57%
Fuenlabrada 2+ goals
21%
Fuenlabrada 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
70%
Fuenlabrada (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Fuenlabrada away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Fuenlabrada defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fuenlabrada attack 0.58 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mérida AD scores more
51%
level
27%
Fuenlabrada scores more
22%

Mérida AD at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mérida AD vs Fuenlabrada

Mérida AD beat Fuenlabrada 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.