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Mérida AD vs Extremadura — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
3/7/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 16Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mérida AD40%
×Draw33%
Extremadura27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.00
Extremadura
0.75

Mérida AD creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
0.83
Extremadura
1.08

allows per match

Mérida AD
0.42
Extremadura
1.17

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
73%
Mérida AD or Extremadura
67%
Draw or Extremadura
60%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
16%
Extremadura wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
63%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
26%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
8%
Extremadura 1+ goals
53%
Extremadura 2+ goals
17%
Extremadura 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
60%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 0.83 + Extremadura defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Extremadura attack 1.08 + Mérida AD defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mérida AD scores more
40%
level
33%
Extremadura scores more
27%

Mérida AD at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mérida AD 0 – 1 Extremadura

Extremadura beat Mérida AD 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.