Mérida AD 3–1 Arenteiro: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arenteiro

10/18/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 8Estadio Romano Jose Fouto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD47%

×Draw27%

Arenteiro25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchArenteiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.93

Mérida AD

1.38

Arenteiro

0.93

Mérida AD creates 48% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 57 away

1.37

creates per match

0.75

1.11

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.37

Arenteiro

0.75

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Arenteiro

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Arenteiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Arenteiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

75%

Mérida AD or Arenteiro

73%

Draw or Arenteiro

53%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

23%

Arenteiro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

75%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

40%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

16%

Arenteiro 1+ goals

61%

Arenteiro 2+ goals

24%

Arenteiro 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

65%

Arenteiro (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Arenteiro away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Arenteiro defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Arenteiro attack 0.75 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mérida AD scores more

47%

level

27%

Arenteiro scores more

25%

Mérida AD at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff