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Mérida AD vs Arenas Getxo — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Arenas Getxo
Arenas Getxo
10/5/2025Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Estadio Romano Jose Fouto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD50%
×Draw26%
Arenas Getxo24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.52
Arenas Getxo
0.95

Mérida AD creates 60% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Arenas Getxo
0.79

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Arenas Getxo
1.68

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Arenas Getxo+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Arenas Getxo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
76%
Mérida AD or Arenas Getxo
74%
Draw or Arenas Getxo
50%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
26%
Arenas Getxo wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
78%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
45%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
20%
Arenas Getxo 1+ goals
61%
Arenas Getxo 2+ goals
25%
Arenas Getxo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
68%
Arenas Getxo (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Arenas Getxo away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Arenas Getxo defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Arenas Getxo attack 0.79 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mérida AD scores more
50%
level
26%
Arenas Getxo scores more
24%

Mérida AD at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Mérida AD 3–0 Arenas Getxo

Mérida AD beat Arenas Getxo 3-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto in Mérida.