Merelinense 3–4 Rabo Peixe: Result & Stats

Merelinense

AET

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Rabo Peixe

10/2/2022

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio João Soares Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merelinense70%

×Draw20%

Rabo Peixe11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MerelinenseExpected goals in this matchRabo Peixe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.63

Merelinense

2.00

Rabo Peixe

0.63

Merelinense creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

0.75

creates per match

0.00

1.25

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Merelinense

0.75

Rabo Peixe

0.00

allows per match

Merelinense

1.25

Rabo Peixe

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merelinense+0.00on par

Rabo Peixe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merelinense ↓

Rabo Peixe →

0–07%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Merelinense or draw

89%

Merelinense or Rabo Peixe

80%

Draw or Rabo Peixe

30%

Winning margin

Merelinense wins by 2+

44%

Rabo Peixe wins by 2+

Team goals

Merelinense 1+ goals

86%

Merelinense 2+ goals

59%

Merelinense 3+ goals

32%

Rabo Peixe 1+ goals

47%

Rabo Peixe 2+ goals

13%

Rabo Peixe 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Merelinense (draw refunded)

87%

Rabo Peixe (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Merelinense at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Rabo Peixe away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Merelinense attack 0.75 + Rabo Peixe defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rabo Peixe attack 0.00 + Merelinense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Merelinense scores more

70%

level

20%

Rabo Peixe scores more

11%

Merelinense at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Merelinense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff