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Merelinense vs Moreirense — Taça de Portugal 2018

Merelinense
Merelinense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
11/22/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio João Soares Vieira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merelinense28%
×Draw27%
Moreirense46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merelinense
1.04
Moreirense
1.42

Moreirense creates 37% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 12 away

creates per match

Merelinense
0.75
Moreirense
1.58

allows per match

Merelinense
1.25
Moreirense
1.33

finishing

Merelinense+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merelinense ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Merelinense or draw
54%
Merelinense or Moreirense
73%
Draw or Moreirense
72%

Winning margin

Merelinense wins by 2+
10%
Moreirense wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Merelinense 1+ goals
65%
Merelinense 2+ goals
28%
Merelinense 3+ goals
9%
Moreirense 1+ goals
76%
Moreirense 2+ goals
41%
Moreirense 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Merelinense (draw refunded)
38%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merelinense at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Moreirense away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merelinense attack 0.75 + Moreirense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Moreirense attack 1.58 + Merelinense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Merelinense scores more
28%
level
27%
Moreirense scores more
46%

Moreirense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Moreirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Merelinense 0–1 Moreirense

Moreirense beat Merelinense 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio João Soares Vieira in São Pedro de Merelim.