Mercedes 1–0 Defensores de Cambaceres

Mercedes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Defensores de Cambaceres

2/17/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 3Estadio Liga Mercedes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mercedes41%

×Draw32%

Defensores de Cambaceres27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercedesExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Cambaceres

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.78

Mercedes

1.04

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.78

Mercedes creates 33% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

0.92

creates per match

0.67

0.88

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Mercedes

0.92

Defensores de Cambaceres

0.67

allows per match

Mercedes

0.88

Defensores de Cambaceres

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercedes+0.00on par

Defensores de Cambaceres+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercedes ↓

Defensores de Cambaceres →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mercedes or draw

73%

Mercedes or Defensores de Cambaceres

68%

Draw or Defensores de Cambaceres

59%

Winning margin

Mercedes wins by 2+

16%

Defensores de Cambaceres wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Mercedes 1+ goals

65%

Mercedes 2+ goals

28%

Mercedes 3+ goals

9%

Defensores de Cambaceres 1+ goals

54%

Defensores de Cambaceres 2+ goals

18%

Defensores de Cambaceres 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Mercedes (draw refunded)

60%

Defensores de Cambaceres (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercedes at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Defensores de Cambaceres away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercedes attack 0.92 + Defensores de Cambaceres defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.04

Defensores de Cambaceres attack 0.67 + Mercedes defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mercedes scores more

41%

level

32%

Defensores de Cambaceres scores more

27%

Mercedes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mercedes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff