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Mercedes vs Atletico Atlas — Primera C 2026

Mercedes
Mercedes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Atlas
Atletico Atlas
10/19/2025Primera CPrimera C · Quarter-finalsEstadio Liga Mercedina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mercedes39%
×Draw30%
Atletico Atlas31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercedes
1.14
Atletico Atlas
0.98

Mercedes creates 16% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 104 away

creates per match

Mercedes
0.92
Atletico Atlas
1.07

allows per match

Mercedes
0.88
Atletico Atlas
1.35

finishing

Mercedes+0.00on par
Atletico Atlas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercedes ↓

Atletico Atlas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mercedes or draw
69%
Mercedes or Atletico Atlas
70%
Draw or Atletico Atlas
61%

Winning margin

Mercedes wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Atlas wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mercedes 1+ goals
68%
Mercedes 2+ goals
32%
Mercedes 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Atlas 1+ goals
62%
Atletico Atlas 2+ goals
26%
Atletico Atlas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mercedes (draw refunded)
56%
Atletico Atlas (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercedes at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Atletico Atlas away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercedes attack 0.92 + Atletico Atlas defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atletico Atlas attack 1.07 + Mercedes defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mercedes scores more
39%
level
30%
Atletico Atlas scores more
31%

Mercedes at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mercedes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mercedes vs Atletico Atlas

Mercedes and Atletico Atlas drew 1-1 in Primera C on October 19, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Liga Mercedina in Mercedes.