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Mercadal vs PE Sant Jordi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mercadal
Mercadal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
PE Sant Jordi
PE Sant Jordi
10/8/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 5Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Mercadal46%
×Draw26%
PE Sant Jordi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercadal
1.46
PE Sant Jordi
1.08

Mercadal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mercadal
1.38
PE Sant Jordi
1.18

allows per match

Mercadal
0.98
PE Sant Jordi
1.55

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par
PE Sant Jordi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

PE Sant Jordi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw
72%
Mercadal or PE Sant Jordi
74%
Draw or PE Sant Jordi
54%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+
22%
PE Sant Jordi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals
77%
Mercadal 2+ goals
43%
Mercadal 3+ goals
18%
PE Sant Jordi 1+ goals
66%
PE Sant Jordi 2+ goals
29%
PE Sant Jordi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)
62%
PE Sant Jordi (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

PE Sant Jordi away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + PE Sant Jordi defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

PE Sant Jordi attack 1.18 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mercadal scores more
46%
level
26%
PE Sant Jordi scores more
28%

Mercadal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Mercadal 2–1 PE Sant Jordi

Mercadal beat PE Sant Jordi 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Menorca.