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Mercadal vs Manacor — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mercadal
Mercadal
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Manacor
Manacor
3/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 27Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Mercadal39%
×Draw27%
Manacor33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercadal
1.28
Manacor
1.16

Mercadal creates 10% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 114 away

creates per match

Mercadal
1.38
Manacor
1.34

allows per match

Mercadal
0.98
Manacor
1.18

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par
Manacor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Manacor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw
67%
Mercadal or Manacor
73%
Draw or Manacor
61%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+
17%
Manacor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals
72%
Mercadal 2+ goals
37%
Mercadal 3+ goals
14%
Manacor 1+ goals
69%
Manacor 2+ goals
32%
Manacor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)
54%
Manacor (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Manacor away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Manacor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

Manacor attack 1.34 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mercadal scores more
39%
level
27%
Manacor scores more
33%

Mercadal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mercadal vs Manacor

Mercadal beat Manacor 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on March 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Menorca.