Mercadal 1–3 Llosetense: Result & Stats

Mercadal

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Llosetense

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 31Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Mercadal42%

×Draw27%

Llosetense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercadalExpected goals in this matchLlosetense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.15

Mercadal

1.36

Llosetense

1.15

Mercadal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 116 away

1.38

creates per match

1.31

0.98

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Mercadal

1.38

Llosetense

1.31

allows per match

Mercadal

0.98

Llosetense

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par

Llosetense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Llosetense →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw

68%

Mercadal or Llosetense

73%

Draw or Llosetense

58%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+

19%

Llosetense wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals

74%

Mercadal 2+ goals

39%

Mercadal 3+ goals

16%

Llosetense 1+ goals

68%

Llosetense 2+ goals

32%

Llosetense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)

57%

Llosetense (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Llosetense away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Llosetense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Llosetense attack 1.31 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mercadal scores more

42%

level

27%

Llosetense scores more

32%

Mercadal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff