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Mercadal vs Inter Ibiza — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Mercadal
Mercadal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Ibiza
Inter Ibiza
4/12/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 30Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mercadal51%
×Draw26%
Inter Ibiza23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercadal
1.54
Inter Ibiza
0.95

Mercadal creates 62% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 37 away

creates per match

Mercadal
1.38
Inter Ibiza
0.92

allows per match

Mercadal
0.98
Inter Ibiza
1.70

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par
Inter Ibiza+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Inter Ibiza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw
77%
Mercadal or Inter Ibiza
74%
Draw or Inter Ibiza
49%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+
26%
Inter Ibiza wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals
79%
Mercadal 2+ goals
45%
Mercadal 3+ goals
20%
Inter Ibiza 1+ goals
61%
Inter Ibiza 2+ goals
25%
Inter Ibiza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)
69%
Inter Ibiza (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Inter Ibiza away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Inter Ibiza defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.54

Inter Ibiza attack 0.92 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mercadal scores more
51%
level
26%
Inter Ibiza scores more
23%

Mercadal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mercadal vs Inter Ibiza

Inter Ibiza beat Mercadal 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on April 12, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Es Mercadal (Menorca).