Mercadal 1–1 Alaior: Result & Stats

Mercadal

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Alaior

11/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 9Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mercadal55%

×Draw25%

Alaior20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercadalExpected goals in this matchAlaior

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.87

Mercadal

1.60

Alaior

0.87

Mercadal creates 84% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

0.76

0.98

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Mercadal

1.38

Alaior

0.76

allows per match

Mercadal

0.98

Alaior

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par

Alaior+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Alaior →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw

80%

Mercadal or Alaior

75%

Draw or Alaior

45%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+

29%

Alaior wins by 2+

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals

80%

Mercadal 2+ goals

47%

Mercadal 3+ goals

22%

Alaior 1+ goals

58%

Alaior 2+ goals

22%

Alaior 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)

73%

Alaior (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Alaior away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Alaior defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

Alaior attack 0.76 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mercadal scores more

55%

level

25%

Alaior scores more

20%

Mercadal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff