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Merani Tbilisi vs Spaeri — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Spaeri
Spaeri
6/4/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 17Nutsubidzis Sapekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Merani Tbilisi37%
×Draw24%
Spaeri39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
1.52
Spaeri
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 64 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.76
Spaeri
1.53

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.61
Spaeri
1.28

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Spaeri+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Spaeri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
61%
Merani Tbilisi or Spaeri
76%
Draw or Spaeri
63%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
18%
Spaeri wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
78%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
45%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
20%
Spaeri 1+ goals
79%
Spaeri 2+ goals
46%
Spaeri 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
49%
Spaeri (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Spaeri away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Spaeri defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.52

Spaeri attack 1.53 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
37%
level
24%
Spaeri scores more
39%

Spaeri at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spaeri will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Tbilisi 0–3 Spaeri

Spaeri beat Merani Tbilisi 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Nutsubidzis Sapekhburto Tsentri in Tbilisi.