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Merani Tbilisi vs Dinamo Zugdidi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Dinamo Zugdidi
Dinamo Zugdidi
5/10/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 11Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Merani Tbilisi51%
×Draw22%
Dinamo Zugdidi27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
1.98
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.39

Merani Tbilisi creates 42% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 25 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.76
Dinamo Zugdidi
1.16

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.61
Dinamo Zugdidi
2.20

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Dinamo Zugdidi+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Dinamo Zugdidi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
73%
Merani Tbilisi or Dinamo Zugdidi
78%
Draw or Dinamo Zugdidi
49%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
29%
Dinamo Zugdidi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
86%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
59%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
31%
Dinamo Zugdidi 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Zugdidi 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Zugdidi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo Zugdidi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Dinamo Zugdidi away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Dinamo Zugdidi defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.98

Dinamo Zugdidi attack 1.16 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
51%
level
22%
Dinamo Zugdidi scores more
27%

Merani Tbilisi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merani Tbilisi vs Dinamo Zugdidi

Merani Tbilisi beat Dinamo Zugdidi 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 10, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.