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Merani Tbilisi vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
3/15/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Stadioni Spaeri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Merani Tbilisi63%
×Draw20%
Chikhura Sachkhere17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Tbilisi
2.19
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.03

Merani Tbilisi creates 113% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 18 away

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.76
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.44

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi
1.61
Chikhura Sachkhere
2.61

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw
83%
Merani Tbilisi or Chikhura Sachkhere
80%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
37%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
40%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
89%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
64%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
37%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
64%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
28%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
79%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.19

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more
63%
level
20%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
17%

Merani Tbilisi at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Tbilisi 2–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Merani Tbilisi beat Chikhura Sachkhere 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 15, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni Spaeri in Tbilisi.