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Merani Martvili vs WIT Georgia — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
CANC
10:00
WIT Georgia
WIT Georgia
10/30/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Merani Martvili44%
×Draw24%
WIT Georgia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Martvili
1.61
WIT Georgia
1.31

Merani Martvili creates 23% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 74 away

creates per match

Merani Martvili
1.51
WIT Georgia
1.22

allows per match

Merani Martvili
1.41
WIT Georgia
1.72

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par
WIT Georgia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

WIT Georgia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw
69%
Merani Martvili or WIT Georgia
76%
Draw or WIT Georgia
56%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+
23%
WIT Georgia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals
80%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
48%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
22%
WIT Georgia 1+ goals
73%
WIT Georgia 2+ goals
38%
WIT Georgia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
59%
WIT Georgia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

WIT Georgia away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.72 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + WIT Georgia defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

WIT Georgia attack 1.22 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merani Martvili scores more
44%
level
24%
WIT Georgia scores more
31%

Merani Martvili at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Merani Martvili host WIT Georgia

October 30, 2022: Merani Martvili take on WIT Georgia in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.