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Merani Martvili vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
11/23/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 34Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Merani Martvili46%
×Draw23%
Merani Tbilisi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Martvili
1.77
Merani Tbilisi
1.40

Merani Martvili creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 64 away

creates per match

Merani Martvili
1.51
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Merani Martvili
1.41
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw
69%
Merani Martvili or Merani Tbilisi
77%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
54%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+
25%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals
83%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
53%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
26%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
75%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
41%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
60%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.77

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Merani Martvili scores more
46%
level
23%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
31%

Merani Martvili at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Merani Martvili 4–2 Merani Tbilisi

Merani Martvili beat Merani Tbilisi 4-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.