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Merani Martvili vs Dinamo Tbilisi II — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Tbilisi II
Dinamo Tbilisi II
12/2/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 36Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Merani Martvili47%
×Draw23%
Dinamo Tbilisi II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merani Martvili
1.79
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.38

Merani Martvili creates 30% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 56 away

creates per match

Merani Martvili
1.51
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.34

allows per match

Merani Martvili
1.41
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.07

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par
Dinamo Tbilisi II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw
70%
Merani Martvili or Dinamo Tbilisi II
77%
Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi II
53%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+
26%
Dinamo Tbilisi II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals
83%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
53%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
26%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Tbilisi II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
61%
Dinamo Tbilisi II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi II away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Dinamo Tbilisi II defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.79

Dinamo Tbilisi II attack 1.34 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Merani Martvili scores more
47%
level
23%
Dinamo Tbilisi II scores more
30%

Merani Martvili at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merani Martvili vs Dinamo Tbilisi II

Merani Martvili and Dinamo Tbilisi II drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava in Martvili.