Meppen U19 2–1 Unterhaching U19: Result & Stats

Meppen U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Unterhaching U19

N. Wessels 13'

O. Marx 6'

A. Leuthard 87'

5/21/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 5Waldstadion Hauptplatz A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1945%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1932%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meppen U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.54

Meppen U19

1.86

Unterhaching U19

1.54

Meppen U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 55 away

1.77

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Meppen U19

1.77

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Meppen U19

1.75

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw

68%

Meppen U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

55%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

25%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals

84%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

55%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

28%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

79%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

45%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.86

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meppen U19 scores more

45%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

32%

Meppen U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

O. Marx

13'

N. Wessels

46'

J. Hagemann← L. Zumdieck

46'

M. Zumdieck← L. Köster

46'

T. Berling← B. Wittenbernds

59'

S. Dorfner← L. Kaniz

59'

T. Hannemann← L. Fleddermann

60'

J. Jürgens← F. Golkowski

71'

B. Antczak← O. Marx

87'

A. Leuthard

Meppen

Unterhaching

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Marx

▼

Zumdieck

Manager: C. Stammermann

46'▲J. Hagemann←▼L. Zumdieck

46'▲M. Zumdieck←▼L. Köster

46'▲T. Berling←▼B. Wittenbernds

60'▲J. Jürgens←▼F. Golkowski

71'▲B. Antczak←▼O. Marx

Meppen U19 substitutes

HagemannZumdieckBerlingJürgensAntczakPieper

Manager: M. Unterberger

59'▲S. Dorfner←▼L. Kaniz

59'▲T. Hannemann←▼L. Fleddermann

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

DorfnerHannemannSchmauß

U19 Bundesliga: Meppen U19 2–1 Unterhaching U19

Meppen U19 beat Unterhaching U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 21, 2023.

Goals: O. Marx (6'), N. Wessels (13'), A. Leuthard (87').

The match was played at Waldstadion Hauptplatz A in Meppen.

Meppen U19 vs Unterhaching U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Meppen U19 2–1 Unterhaching U19