Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Meppen U19 vs RB Leipzig U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
RB Leipzig U19
RB Leipzig U19
5/3/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 25Waldstadion Hauptplatz A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1933%
×Draw22%
RB Leipzig U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.64
RB Leipzig U19
1.93

RB Leipzig U19 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 70 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
RB Leipzig U19
2.10

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
RB Leipzig U19
1.50

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
RB Leipzig U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

RB Leipzig U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
55%
Meppen U19 or RB Leipzig U19
78%
Draw or RB Leipzig U19
67%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
16%
RB Leipzig U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
81%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
49%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
23%
RB Leipzig U19 1+ goals
85%
RB Leipzig U19 2+ goals
57%
RB Leipzig U19 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
43%
RB Leipzig U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

RB Leipzig U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.50 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + RB Leipzig U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

RB Leipzig U19 attack 2.10 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
33%
level
22%
RB Leipzig U19 scores more
45%

RB Leipzig U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "RB Leipzig U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meppen U19 vs RB Leipzig U19

RB Leipzig U19 beat Meppen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion Hauptplatz A in Meppen.