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Meppen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
3/7/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1942%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster U1936%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.87
Preußen Münster U19
1.70

Meppen U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 60 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Preußen Münster U19
1.65

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Preußen Münster U19
1.97

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
64%
Meppen U19 or Preußen Münster U19
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster U19
58%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
23%
Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
85%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
56%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
29%
Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
82%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
51%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.87

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
42%
level
22%
Preußen Münster U19 scores more
36%

Meppen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Meppen
Preußen
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann
J. Hötting
Manager: J. Hötting

Match Recap: Meppen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19

Preußen Münster U19 beat Meppen U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on March 7, 2026.