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Meppen U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
2/21/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1936%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U1941%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.61
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.68

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
1.46

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
59%
Meppen U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
77%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19
64%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
18%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
80%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
48%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals
82%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals
51%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.61

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
36%
level
23%
Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more
41%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Meppen
Fortuna
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann
E. Vural
Manager: E. Vural

Meppen U19 1 – 3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Meppen U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 21, 2026.