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Meppen U19 vs Borussia M'bach U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Borussia M'bach U19
Borussia M'bach U19
L. Jürgens 59'
M. Kolhoff 45'
M. van Lipzig 82'
Iaia Danfa 37'
9/13/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 6Waldstadion Hauptplatz A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1931%
×Draw21%
Borussia M'bach U1948%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.61
Borussia M'bach U19
2.04

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 73 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Borussia M'bach U19
2.32

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Borussia M'bach U19
1.45

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
52%
Meppen U19 or Borussia M'bach U19
79%
Draw or Borussia M'bach U19
69%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
15%
Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
80%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
48%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
22%
Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals
87%
Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals
60%
Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.61

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
31%
level
21%
Borussia M'bach U19 scores more
48%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
Iaia Danfa
45'
M. Kolhoff
59'
L. Jürgens
82'
M. van Lipzig
Meppen
Borussia
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann
O. Kirch
Manager: O. Kirch

U19 Bundesliga: Meppen U19 2–2 Borussia M'bach U19

Meppen U19 and Borussia M'bach U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on September 13, 2025.

Goals: Iaia Danfa (37'), M. Kolhoff (45'), L. Jürgens (59'), M. van Lipzig (82').

The match was played at Waldstadion Hauptplatz A in Meppen.