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Meppen U19 vs Arminia Bielefeld U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Arminia Bielefeld U19
Arminia Bielefeld U19
L. Thöle 90' (pen), 75' (pen)
N. von Garrel 41'
T. Coşar 33'
D. Richter 14'
8/3/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 1Nebenplatz Hänsch-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1946%
×Draw22%
Arminia Bielefeld U1932%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.92
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.59

Meppen U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 62 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Arminia Bielefeld U19
1.44

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Arminia Bielefeld U19
2.06

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Arminia Bielefeld U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Arminia Bielefeld U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
68%
Meppen U19 or Arminia Bielefeld U19
78%
Draw or Arminia Bielefeld U19
54%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
25%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
85%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
57%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
30%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 1+ goals
80%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 2+ goals
47%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
59%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Arminia Bielefeld U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Arminia Bielefeld U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.92

Arminia Bielefeld U19 attack 1.44 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
46%
level
22%
Arminia Bielefeld U19 scores more
32%

Meppen U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
D. Richter
33'
T. Coşar
41'
N. von Garrel
75'
L. ThölePenalty
90'
L. ThölePenalty
Meppen
Arminia
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann
M. Drobe
Manager: M. Drobe

Meppen U19 3 – 2 Arminia Bielefeld U19

Meppen U19 beat Arminia Bielefeld U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 3, 2025.

Goals: D. Richter (14'), T. Coşar (33'), N. von Garrel (41'), L. Thöle (75' pen, 90' pen).

The match was played at Nebenplatz Hänsch-Arena in Meppen.