Menzel Temim 1–2 Sporting Ben Arous: Result & Stats

Menzel Temim

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sporting Ben Arous

A. Achraf 55'

M. Boulbaba 90+3', 21'

2/29/2020

Cup · 16th FinalsStade Municipal Menzel Temime

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Menzel Temim15%

×Draw21%

Sporting Ben Arous65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel TemimExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.00

Menzel Temim

0.83

Sporting Ben Arous

2.00

Sporting Ben Arous creates 141% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.33

creates per match

1.33

2.67

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Menzel Temim

0.33

Sporting Ben Arous

1.33

allows per match

Menzel Temim

2.67

Sporting Ben Arous

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Temim+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Temim ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0–06%

0–112%

0–212%

0–38%

0–44%

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Menzel Temim or draw

35%

Menzel Temim or Sporting Ben Arous

79%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

85%

Winning margin

Menzel Temim wins by 2+

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Menzel Temim 1+ goals

56%

Menzel Temim 2+ goals

20%

Menzel Temim 3+ goals

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

86%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

59%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Menzel Temim (draw refunded)

19%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Menzel Temim at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Temim attack 0.33 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sporting Ben Arous attack 1.33 + Menzel Temim defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Menzel Temim scores more

15%

level

21%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

65%

Sporting Ben Arous at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sporting Ben Arous will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

M. Boulbaba

55'

A. Achraf

90+3'

M. Boulbaba

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff