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Menzel Temim vs Jendouba Sport — Cup 2019

Menzel Temim
Menzel Temim
FT
0 – 6
Jendouba Sport
Jendouba Sport
2/1/2025CupCup · 3rd Preliminary RoundStade Municipal Menzel Temime

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Menzel Temim8%
×Draw15%
Jendouba Sport77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Temim
0.60
Jendouba Sport
2.40

Jendouba Sport creates 300% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Menzel Temim
0.33
Jendouba Sport
2.13

allows per match

Menzel Temim
2.67
Jendouba Sport
0.88

finishing

Menzel Temim+0.00on par
Jendouba Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Temim ↓

Jendouba Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–112%
0–215%
0–312%
0–47%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Menzel Temim or draw
23%
Menzel Temim or Jendouba Sport
85%
Draw or Jendouba Sport
92%

Winning margin

Menzel Temim wins by 2+
2%
Jendouba Sport wins by 2+
54%

Team goals

Menzel Temim 1+ goals
45%
Menzel Temim 2+ goals
12%
Menzel Temim 3+ goals
2%
Jendouba Sport 1+ goals
91%
Jendouba Sport 2+ goals
69%
Jendouba Sport 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Menzel Temim (draw refunded)
9%
Jendouba Sport (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Temim at home — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Jendouba Sport away — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Temim attack 0.33 + Jendouba Sport defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.60

Jendouba Sport attack 2.13 + Menzel Temim defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Menzel Temim scores more
8%
level
15%
Jendouba Sport scores more
77%

Jendouba Sport at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Jendouba Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Temim vs Jendouba Sport

Jendouba Sport beat Menzel Temim 6-0 in Cup on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Menzel Temime in Menzel Temime.