Menzel Nour 2–0 Sfax Railways: Result & Stats

Menzel Nour

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sfax Railways

4/10/2022

Ligue 2 · Relegation Round - 2Métouia Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour44%

×Draw30%

Sfax Railways27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel NourExpected goals in this matchSfax Railways

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.86

Menzel Nour

1.19

Sfax Railways

0.86

Menzel Nour creates 38% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 37 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

0.75

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Menzel Nour

1.25

Sfax Railways

0.97

allows per match

Menzel Nour

0.75

Sfax Railways

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Sfax Railways+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

Sfax Railways →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw

73%

Menzel Nour or Sfax Railways

70%

Draw or Sfax Railways

56%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

19%

Sfax Railways wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

70%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

33%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

12%

Sfax Railways 1+ goals

58%

Sfax Railways 2+ goals

21%

Sfax Railways 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

62%

Sfax Railways (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Sfax Railways away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + Sfax Railways defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sfax Railways attack 0.97 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Menzel Nour scores more

44%

level

30%

Sfax Railways scores more

27%

Menzel Nour at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff