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Menzel Nour vs JS Kairouanaise — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
2/27/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour43%
×Draw31%
JS Kairouanaise26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Nour
1.13
JS Kairouanaise
0.81

Menzel Nour creates 40% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 45 away

creates per match

Menzel Nour
1.25
JS Kairouanaise
0.87

allows per match

Menzel Nour
0.75
JS Kairouanaise
1.00

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par
JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

JS Kairouanaise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw
74%
Menzel Nour or JS Kairouanaise
69%
Draw or JS Kairouanaise
57%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+
18%
JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals
68%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
31%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
11%
JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
56%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
19%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
62%
JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.87 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Menzel Nour scores more
43%
level
31%
JS Kairouanaise scores more
26%

Menzel Nour at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Nour vs JS Kairouanaise

Menzel Nour beat JS Kairouanaise 3-2 in Ligue 2 on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour in Menzel Ennour.