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Menzel Nour vs EM Mahdia — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
EM Mahdia
EM Mahdia
4/14/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Relegation Round - 3Stade Municipale As-Sawasi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour49%
×Draw29%
EM Mahdia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Nour
1.26
EM Mahdia
0.74

Menzel Nour creates 70% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 55 away

creates per match

Menzel Nour
1.25
EM Mahdia
0.73

allows per match

Menzel Nour
0.75
EM Mahdia
1.27

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par
EM Mahdia+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

EM Mahdia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw
78%
Menzel Nour or EM Mahdia
71%
Draw or EM Mahdia
51%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+
22%
EM Mahdia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals
72%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
36%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
13%
EM Mahdia 1+ goals
52%
EM Mahdia 2+ goals
17%
EM Mahdia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
69%
EM Mahdia (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

EM Mahdia away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + EM Mahdia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

EM Mahdia attack 0.73 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Menzel Nour scores more
49%
level
29%
EM Mahdia scores more
22%

Menzel Nour at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Nour 1–2 EM Mahdia

EM Mahdia beat Menzel Nour 2-1 in Ligue 2 on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Municipale As-Sawasi in As-Sawasi.