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Menzel Nour vs Djerba — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
FT
1 – 1
Djerba
Djerba
12/4/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour53%
×Draw29%
Djerba19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Nour
1.31
Djerba
0.65

Menzel Nour creates 102% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

Menzel Nour
1.25
Djerba
0.55

allows per match

Menzel Nour
0.75
Djerba
1.36

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par
Djerba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

Djerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw
81%
Menzel Nour or Djerba
71%
Draw or Djerba
47%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+
25%
Djerba wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals
73%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
38%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
14%
Djerba 1+ goals
48%
Djerba 2+ goals
14%
Djerba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
74%
Djerba (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Djerba away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + Djerba defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Djerba attack 0.55 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Menzel Nour scores more
53%
level
29%
Djerba scores more
19%

Menzel Nour at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Menzel Nour vs Djerba

Menzel Nour and Djerba drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour in Menzel Ennour.